Research on the Spatiotemporal Dynamic Evolution of the High-Quality Development of China's Agricultural Green Economy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61360/BoniGHSS262019750202Keywords:
agricultural green economy, spatiotemporal evolution, spatial durbin modelAbstract
Against the backdrop of China’s national strategy for agricultural green development, systematically measuring its spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanisms is crucial to agricultural modernization transformation. This study constructs a four-dimensional evaluation system covering resource utilization, environmental pressure, economic output and social benefits, and analyzes the panel data of China’s 31 provinces from 2011 to 2023 via the entropy weight-TOPSIS method and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The findings are as follows: The national agricultural green economy level fluctuated in a "decline-rise-decline" trend, with its comprehensive index falling from 0.453 in 2011 to 0.337 in 2023 and mounting overall downward pressure; its spatial pattern shifted from "high in the east and low in the west" to a combination of "north-south differentiation" and a "plateau isolated island", the east-west gap widened from 0.122 to 0.143, and the "central collapse" was notable. Spatial correlation evolved from random distribution to significant "low-low agglomeration", with the local Moran's I rising from 0.085 to 0.214, trapping contiguous regions in low-value development. Economic development boosted local agricultural green economy but had negative spatial spillovers; urbanization and fiscal pressure exerted inhibitory effects, while industrial structure upgrading brought positive spatial spillovers and acted as the core driver for coordinated development. Based on these conclusions, this paper suggests advancing the coordinated high-quality development of agricultural green economy through contiguous comprehensive governance, gradient transmission, industrial chain linkage and horizontal compensation.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Jialei Ge, Fan Tang, Yihang Hu
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