Healthcare Supply Resilience under Public Health Shocks:A Service Trajectory Assessment from Guangzhou
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.61360/BoniGHSS262020740503Keywords:
healthcare resilience, hospital services, resistance and recovery, public health shocks, GuangzhouAbstract
Public health shocks disrupt medical resources, healthcare staffing, and hospital service delivery, yet their effects on service resilience within cities remain insufficiently resolved. Here, we use official statistics and a Resistance, Recovery, and Recovery Speed (RRS) framework to examine hospital service trajectories across Guangzhou's 11 districts. We evaluate hospital visits per resident, discharged patients per 1,000 residents, and bed utilization relative to baseline levels and trace changes in resources and services over time. Guangzhou retained 80.7% of its baseline composite service level during the initial shock and subsequently recovered beyond that benchmark. Recovery nevertheless varied among indicators and districts. Discharge activity recovered more strongly than hospital visits and bed utilization, and districts with similar initial resistance followed divergent recovery trajectories. Exploratory analyses detected no statistically significant association between resource density and the measured resilience outcomes. By separating resistance, recovery, and recovery speed, the RRS framework enables transparent assessment of healthcare service resilience when district data are limited. These findings support district specific monitoring and differentiated capacity review to identify uneven recovery and inform responsive healthcare planning.
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